SIRT High Price Poll Closed - 2008 Thoughts

The results of the poll conducted on this blog regarding expectations for the 2008 high stock price of SIRT are now final. No consensus was formed. If you ignore the $10 choice, which is already incorrect, the other choices: $20 -> 23%, $30-> 29% & $40 or above-> 27% or above were pretty much the same.

One year is an eternity in stock market time and the ultimate correct prognostication will be determined by three main factors:

1) Progress in clinical trials and any other related news (i.e., big pharma deals).
2) Level of insider selling.
3) General market conditions.

Sirtuin Investor has a personal 2008 price target of $33 per share with the caveat that insider selling remains somewhat muted throughout the year. Now a little commentary. IMHO, at this early timeframe in SIRT's business business plan, employee and executive insiders have not yet earned the right to sell their shares, from a moral standpoint, despite limited legal restrictions from doing so under SEC regulations. Employee insiders will only legitimately earn the windfall that comes from sales of cheap SIRT stock when at least one of the following occurs:

1) 4 years have passed from the IPO date.
2) Average monthly volume exceeds 500,000 shares for a three month period.
3) The company is on a clear path to profitability.

My logic for these parameters is as follows:

1)4 years have passed from the IPO date.
Once 4 years have passed from the IPO date, the investing public will likely have all
the data it needs to make an informed decision on whether SIRT will ultimately achieve its goals. By this time, any hype created by SIRT management will either have been validated or disproved and a true legimate measurement SIRT's efforts will be reflected in its stock price. In other words, the playing field will have been reasonably leveled between insiders and outside shareholders with regard to where this company is ultimately headed as substansive results of clinical trials will be available.

2)Average monthly volume exceeds 500,000shs for a three month period.
This will be an indication that the company has generated sustainable widespread market interest and will allow insiders to sell without significantly effecting the stock price.

3)The company is on a clear path to profitability.
In the final analysis, this is the only true measurement of management and
employee effectiveness. Until SIRT reaches this, albeit subjective, moment in its history, employee insiders will not have legitimately earned the proceeds of windfall personal stock sales to the public, IMHO.

If 2007 is any indication, 2008 will be a volatile year. As always, do your own due dilligence.
Comments are welcome!

Smoking Linked to Sirtuin Destruction

As reported in Science Daily, the importance of sirtuins to health continues to expand. Now, A University of Rochester scientist has discovered that the toxins in cigarette smoke wipe out the SIRT1 gene. The research shows that without this gene we not only lose a bit of youthfulness -- but the lungs are left open to destructive inflammation and diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer.

With each new resveratrol study, it becomes more clear that sirtuins play a vital role in the many aspects of health and vitality. Harnessing the power of these genes will likely play a critical role in future treatments for many diseases of the aging, a basic premise in the business plan of Sirtris Pharmacueticals.

It is interesting to see that, based on the resveratrol usage poll being conducted on this blog, that many are not waiting for long term studies to get the benefits of resveratrol. Do your own due dilligence.

Sirtris Releases New NCE Mice Study

Sirtris Pharmacueticals reported today that one of its new chemical entities, which is 1,000 times more potent than resveratrol, reduces fat, boosts exercise endurance and improves insulin sensitivity in mice on a high-fat diet. Aside from the diabetes potential of the NCE, Sirtuin Investor wonders: Could SIRT's NCE, at some point, could become the next performance enhancing drug to hit the sports world? Only unlike, steroids it may have a safe profile without steroid side effects. Time will tell.

Nonetheless, while preliminary with regard to human trials, this is certainly good news for SIRT and they will present the data this Saturday at the Keystone Symposia on Diabetes Mellitus, Insulin Action and Resistance Conference.

Elixir Pharmacueticals Postpones IPO

As speculated on the SI blog on January 8th, Elixir Pharmaceuticals has been forced to postpone its IPO, scheduled for this week, as plunging equity markets made a successful offering unrealistic. It is not clear when, or if, the IPO will move forward. Interestingly, it appears that underwriters pulled the plug at the last minute as a NASDAQ ticker symbol, ELXR, was set up today. It is unclear how ELXR will respond to its failed capital raising efforts. Timing is everything.

New Poll on Resveratrol Usage

Many of those who are interested in sirtuins and the possibility of investment opportunities in the same are also likely to be interested in the potential health benefits of taking resveratrol, an activator of sirtuins. The Sirtuin Investor Blog has set up a new poll to find whether readers are taking resveratrol and, if so, how much. The results should be interesting.

Encouraging Price Action on SIRT

After rallying sharply and immediately on the positive SRT501 clinical data on January 8th, SIRT shares subsequently relinquished most of its gains. However, as the market has had time to digest the SRT501 data and the implications of potential future value, the subsequent price action has been very encouraging, given the weak overall markets:



Sirtuin Investor believes that SIRT could easily move towards the upper teens ($17-$19)within the next two weeks as institutional interest increases. Importantly, based on the low volume observed during this rise, the advent of irrational exuberance is still a way off (see SI BLOG 12/17/07).

Do your own due diligence and remember the SI proverb: immortality is expensive.

ELIXIR Pharmacueticals Prices IPO

In an amendment to its S-1 filing with the SEC, Elixir Pharmaceuticals revealed that it hopes to sell 5,750,000 shares at $16 or $92,000,000, an increase of $1 per share over an earlier filing. Apparently, ELXR and its underwriters hope to ride the wave of excitement generated by both Sirtris and other companies that presented at the JP Morgan Health Care conference.
ELXR S-1A Filing
The Sirtuin Investor speculates that the current equity market anxiety will make a successful IPO difficult. If the IPO is successful, Elixir will become the third public company that has announced a formal research program that focuses on sirtuins in the development of new drugs, Pharmion and Sirtris are the others.

Due your own due dilligence and remember....immortality is expensive

SI Blog Covers the JPMorgan Presentation

A few of the Sirtuin Investor observations from the JP Morgan presentation (readers can review the actual press release on the Sirtris news feed shown in right column):

-Christoph Westphal, M.D., Ph.D., CEO and Vice Chair of Sirtris made an eloquent and highly well thought out step by step presentation that took the audience from the first studies on calorie restriction in the 1930s to the just released clinical data on SRT501.

-SRT501 provides a 5 fold exposure to resveratrol than the natural substance.

-Mr. Westhpal's most significant quote: "...to summarise the data, we are certainly positively surprised."

-Finally, here is the prospective news flow calendar:



As the chart shows, the news flow will remain healthy throughout the year.

Carefully do your own due dilligence because immortality is expensive.

As Predicted on SI Blog : SRT501 Clinical Results Released

As speculated on this blog, Sirtris Pharmacueticals released the results of its Phase 1b clinical study of SRT501 at the 26th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. The news was terrific:

"This 28-day Phase 1b study was designed to assess the safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of once-daily, orally administered doses of either 2.5 g or 5 g of SRT501 in patients with Type 2 Diabetes who were naïve to other diabetes drug treatments. Both doses of SRT501 were found to be safe and well-tolerated, and pharmacokinetics, a measure of drug levels in the blood, were identical at days one and 28, suggesting no drug accumulation. There were no serious adverse events and no dose-related adverse events. Importantly, SRT501 showed a statistically significant improvement in an oral glucose tolerance test on day 28 at two hours and a trend towards lower fasting plasma glucose levels."

For SIRT investors the good news translated into a 14% gain in after hours trading as SIRT rose sharply from $13.19 at the close to $15 at 5:00PM. Tomorrow should be a very interesting day.

SIRT SEC Filing - Emphasis on Change in Control

In an 8-k filing filed yesterday changes were made to the employment agreements of senior management. The most interesting aspect was related to a change in control:

"On January 2, 2008, upon a recommendation of the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors, the Company entered into amended and restated employment agreements with Christoph Westphal, Garen Bohlin, Peter Elliott and Michael Jirousek, to make the payments and benefits payable to these executive officers in certain circumstances more consistent with each other and reflective of current market terms for similarly situated executives. The agreements provide that a certain percentage of the options and restricted stock held by each of these executive officers, other than Mr. Westphal, will vest upon a change in control (as defined in the agreements), and the remainder of the options and restricted stock will vest upon termination by the Company without cause (as defined in the agreements) or by the employee for good reason (as defined in the agreements) within a certain time period following the change in control. Mr. Westphal's employment agreement was amended to provide that all of Mr. Westphal's unvested options, in addition to his restricted stock, will fully vest upon a change in control. Additionally, if any of Messrs. Westphal, Bohlin, Elliott or Jirousek is terminated during a specified period following a change in control without cause or for good reason, each officer, other than Mr. Westphal, will each receive a lump sum payment equal to 12 months base salary. Mr. Westphal will receive a lump sum payment equal to 18 months of base salary. Each executive officer will also receive a pro-rata portion of the target bonus he would have received for the year in which the termination occurs."

Those who have closely followed SIRT and this blog are aware that big Pharma has been keenly interested in the progress Sirtris has made on Sirtuin research. These amendments to management compensation agreements appear to be a tacit acknowledgement that at as SIRT progresses as the leader in sirtuin research, it will further position itself as an attractive acquisition target.

Do your own DD.

Small Float: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

For investors in SIRT, the last month and a half has seen both titillating exhilaration and stomach churning pain. This stock chart clearly illustrates this:



We all love to feel the exhilaration and loathe to feel the pain. However, a story stock such as SIRT with low float and limited liquidity, where the future is unlimited but the risks are high, tends to act in this schizophrenic manner. Throw in some venture capital sales of cheap stock and a lull in the news flow and the SIRT stock chart speaks for itself. The interesting thing about story stocks like SIRT is that when substantive good news comes along, sharp declines are often followed by steep climbs. One way to deal with this volatility is to own a long term core position and an equal trading position. Own no more in total than you can afford to lose and take the trading position off the table after a sharp rise. How sharp a rise? Who the hell KNOWS!!! That is the $501,000,000 question.

With SRT501 clinical trials from India due out any day now and with a little luck, we could see the chart turn upside down!!



On January 7th, SIRT is presenting at the 26th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. Clould this be the day they announce the SIRT501 clinical trial results?

Good luck and do your own due diligence.....and please visit our sponsors on this blog. Remember, immortality is expensive!