Mark my words:
Friday, June 13, 2008
Forbes Article Highlights Accelerating Race for Cellulosic Ethanol Production
Mark my words:
Friday, June 6, 2008
SI Editorial: The U.S. Energy Dilemma
- Remove the Roadblocks to Nuclear Power. - it's not perfect but it is efficient, abundant and produces NO CO2. France generates 80% of its electrical power from nuclear energy!!
- Sell Oil and Gas Exploration Leases off the coast of the continental shelf - we have two coastlines that may hold billions of barrels of oil. However, they have been off limits to drilling due to environmental concerns. It is understandable and reasonable to be concerned for our environment. However, desperate times call for desperate measures. Look at what Brazil has accomplished. At this point ANWAR is a no brainer. Are working class people less important than caribou?
- Embrace Cellulosic Ethanol - don't be swayed by the fiasco of corn based ethanol as it was always intended to be a stepping stone. Once again another country had the vision that we, up until this point, failed to see. Brazil is energy independent. We can get there too with the big legislative push currently in place for cellulosic ethanol. To learn more click here. You may even make some money.
- Continue to Push For Renewable Energy - we are on the road to progress in this area. Wind, Solar, Municipal Waste, Geothermal, Hydro, Tidal Energy. These are the long term answers that will eventually make a difference. How could anybody argue with off shore wind turbines, for God's sake? But they do!!
- Conservation - with energy prices at current levels conversation is finally happening on its own inertia. Big SUV's are finally being shunned by consumers. However, legislation should be enacted to officially require significant improvements in auto gas mileage requirements, something that should have been accomplished decades ago.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
New Study: Low Dose of Resveratrol Mimics Calorie Restriction Diet
An abstract of the study follows:
Resveratrol in high doses has been shown to extend lifespan in some studies in invertebrates and to prevent early mortality in mice fed a high-fat diet. We fed mice from middle age (14-months) to old age (30-months) either a control diet, a low dose of resveratrol (4.9 mg kg−1 day−1), or a calorie restricted (CR) diet and examined genome-wide transcriptional profiles. We report a striking transcriptional overlap of CR and resveratrol in heart, skeletal muscle and brain. Both dietary interventions inhibit gene expression profiles associated with cardiac and skeletal muscle aging, and prevent age-related cardiac dysfunction. Dietary resveratrol also mimics the effects of CR in insulin mediated glucose uptake in muscle. Gene expression profiling suggests that both CR and resveratrol may retard some aspects of aging through alterations in chromatin structure and transcription. Resveratrol, at doses that can be readily achieved in humans, fulfills the definition of a dietary compound that mimics some aspects of CR.
A dose of 4.9 mg per kilogram of body weight was given to mice in a study reminiscent to the celebrated Harvard study in November 2006 by David Sinclair. The media attention that followed helped set the stage to orchestrate the IPO of Sirtris Pharmacueticals. From a resveratrol users perspective a 200lb. and 150lb. individual would take a daily dose of 445mg and a 334mg, respectively to mimic the doses in the study. Another interesting aspect was that the beneficial results were observed in "middle aged" mice as well as "old aged" mice. Surprisingly, the study concluded that Sirt1 levels were not over expressed as in previous studies although the health benefits were evident. To read the study in its entirety, click here.
To the Sirtuin Investor, a couple of questions: Will an even lower dose produce the same results? What are the implications of this study to the drug candidate NCE's of Sirtris Pharmacueticals that are 1,000 more times as potent as resveratrol?
Monday, June 2, 2008
Glaxo Sirtris Merger is now Final
The Sirtuin Investor wishes Glaxo and Sirtris great success in pursuing the promise of sirtuins to treat diseases of the aging.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Verenium Investor Day Presentation
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Focus on Verenium and Cellulosic Ethanol
Corn based ethanol has always been seen as a stepping stone to the ultimate goal of producing it from cellulosic ethanol. Cellulolsic ethanol includes corn stover, switch grass, and other forms of biomass. The problem has been that the technology to produce ethanol from these readily available, environmentally friendly sources, has yet to be proven on a commercial scale. That's were Verenium comes in.
Verenium is a company that came about as a result of a merger of two entities in June 2007:
- Diversa Corporation - a global leader in enzyme technology and
- Celunol Corporation - a leading developer of cellulosic ethanol process technologies and projects.
The pending energy bill, which passed with enough votes to make it veto proof, has new important incentives to transition our nation from unattractive corn based ethanol to cellulosic ethanol. Do your own DD about VRNM. Here is my short synopsis:
THE GOOD: VRNM has decades of enzyme research and hundreds of millions in accumulated R&D. The justified bad press on corn based ethanol has unjustly negatively effected the stock of VRNM which is developing the attractive cellolosic alternative. The pending 2008 energy bill recognizes the need to move from corn to cellulous and is very favorable in this regard with up to a huge $1.01 tax credit per gallon.
THE BAD: Cost overruns at the company's demonstration plant have put pressure on the company's finances and it will need to raise capital or find a corporate backer.
THE UGLY: The February 2007 convertible offering in conjunction with a call spread on its own stock was an expensive piece of financing sold mostly to hedge funds that short the VRNM stock as a hedge to its long position. As a result the stock price has and will be volatile.
Short Term CATALYST: The passage of the energy bill.
Simply put, the risk/reward profile of VRNM is very high. If VRNM can show in its current demonstration projects that it has viable technology to produce commercial scale cellulosic ethanol, it could become an easy 1o-bagger. If it fails or runs into major roadblocks the risk is your entire investment.
Do your own DD and pass this link on to those who may be interested.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Sirtuin Investor to Expand Coverage
With all endings come new beginnings. While the sirtuin story is still extremely fascinating, the only pure play investment opportunity in this area has disappeared and the initial focus of the Sirtuin Investor blog no longer makes much sense. However, immortality IS STILL EXPENSIVE and it seems to be getting more expensive each day. Since reveratrol believers still expect to extend their lives, they need to find ways to finance it. I will attempt to find investments that will replace SIRT in my portfolio and share them on this blog. I will not attempt to flood this page with dozens of ideas but focus on a few stocks that have various risk/reward profiles. I keep most of my assets in municipals giving me the luxury of placing a few large high risk/high reward bets. In every case these are just my own personal ideas and readers need to do their own due diligence.
My first stock of focus will be Verenium Corporation, a company focused on cellulosic ethanol. At this time I provide only a link to their home page for those who wish to do their own research. I will follow-up shortly with a blog entry that will share my own views on the merits of this investment.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Poll Closed - 63% Oppose Merger
From the Sirtuin Investor perspective, after reading the entire offer document, it became very clear that Sirtris management did a very thorough job in shopping the company around after Glaxo expressed interest in an acquisition. Up until this point, Sirtris had been seeking a smaller equity investment from several big Pharma companies at a price of $25 per share. After the overture by Glaxo to acquire the entire company, Sirtris hired JP Morgan to entertain other potential offers and provide a fairness opinion. No other suitors emerged and Sirtris did a fine job in procuring a $22.50 cash tender offer price at a time when the shares in the company were selling in the $12 range. An amazing thing about the offer was how well kept a secret it was. There was absolutely no indication in the stock price or volume that any indication of the negotiations had leaked out. Although I've criticized senior management for insider sales at such an early stage of development of the technology, the insider sales continued throughout the period of negotiations at prices well below the final tender offer price.
As a shareholder, as we count down to the ending of Sirtris as an independent public company, I want to congratulate and thank Sirtis senior management for their efforts and wish them success in capitalizing on the amazing potential of the sirtuin platform. As the Sirtuin Investor, I've partially lost my reason for existence with the elimination of the only pure play sirtuin investment available to the public. Now what do I DO?? I'll either need to expand the scope of this blog or put it to rest. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Cancer and SRT1: Elixir Versus Sirtris??
Excpert from Sirtris press release dated April 16, 2008 :
Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRT), a biopharmaceutical company
focused on discovering and developing small molecule drugs to treat diseases of
aging, announced that a research team led by the company's two Scientific
Advisory Board co-chairs has demonstrated that overexpression of the
SIRT1 enzyme can suppress tumor formation and growth in a preclinical
mouse model of colon cancer, providing the first in-vivo data that SIRT1 can
suppress tumor cell development. The paper, titled SIRT1 Deacetylase Suppresses
Intestinal Tumorigenesis and Colon Cancer Growth, appears in today's issue of
the scientific journal PLoS One.
Excerpt from Elixir website:
Conversely, blocking the amount or activity of SIRT1 has recently been
shown to reverse "epigenetic silencing," a phenomenon that decreases the
expression of important tumor suppressor genes. The implication of these
findings is that blocking SIRT1 could be important in combating several types of cancer. These observations highlight the large potential, and explain the recent interest, in the discovery and development of compounds which could either
increase or decrease the enzymes of this important class of SIRT targets.
If anyone with technical knowledge of this topic has a logical explanation for this seemingly conflicting information, please post a comment to explain.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Will Another Sirtuin Suitor Emerge?
A review of all the diseases of the aging that are potential targets of the sirtuin platform will make it clear why Glaxo made its bid and why another drug company might feel compelled to take a close look at the bid and carefully evaluate whether a higher bid is in order. A higher bid is still a long shot but it is not out of the question.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
GlaxoSmithKline offers $22.50 Cash for Sirtris - HOLD OUT FOR MORE!!
The Sirtuin Investor is taking a position on this deal: DON'T SELL @ $22.50!! While this may be a futile attempt as 21.84% of the shares are held by insiders with institutional investors owning another 30.40%, I believe Sirtris shareholders would be better off riding this thing for a few years. Chris Westphal had been guiding for some time now that a joint venture deal with big pharma was possible within a year or so. Readers of this blog KNOW that a future SI hope for SIRT, aside from its potential of becoming a successful drug company, was the potential for irrational exuberance to take hold at some point. Those dreams end with a cash buyout!
When those proxies come in the mail....VOTE NO! And let your views be known by voting in the SI new poll regarding the buyout. Comments about the deal are encouraged.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Second Clinical Trial Results of SRT501 Released
While this is good news it is hardly unexpected given the safety results of the first study. The more important test of SRT501's viability, will be later on this year when phase 2a data on the effectiveness of SRT501 in combination with the standard of care, metformin will be released. Even if SRT501 does well in this 2a trial, SIRT's 1,000 times more potent NCE may be the more likely candidate to become a stand alone diabetes drug candidate.
In any case, it is the potential of the vastness of the sirtuin platform and the role that Sirtris seemingly plays as gatekeeper with its numerous patents, that makes this a very promising play in biotechnology.
Do your own due diligence.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Home Garden Resveratrol Experiment
I plan on performing my own personal experiment in this year's crop. When I plant my tomato plants this year, I plan on sprinkling 100mg of resveratrol onto the soil surrounding the eventual root spread of 3 out of the 6 tomato plants. Since, resveratrol is a phytoalexin produced naturally by several plants when under attack by bacteria or fungi, it will be interesting to see whether providing resveratrol directly to the roots will have any effect. I'll be reporting on the results as the plants grow. If any SI readers wish to perform the same experiment we can compare notes.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Highlight of the Barbara Walters Sirtris Interview
With that the three of them raised their wine glasses and toasted "To the future".........Martin Scorsese couldn't directed a better script, IMHO.
Are you convinced? Skeptical? Are Sirtuins the answer? Is Sirtris the real deal? Vote your your opinion on the new poll to the right and share the actual program excerpt below with friends.
As always, do your own due diligence.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Barbara Walters Special - Ground Zero for Onset of Irrational Exuberance?
- The fountain of youth angle - live long and stay vigorous.
- The potential (dream?) to cure many diseases of the aging with a single pill.
- The Harvard Medical School connection combined with the incredible team of brain power put together by Sirtris.
- The idea that the body's own defense mechanism is being activated, a seemingly natural process.
- The evidence that sirtuin activation results in improved athletic performance without the nasty side effects of HGH and anabolic steroids.
It is the investor's dream to own a company BEFORE irrational exuberance manifests itself in a stock's share price with the hope that the investor can either:
- Recognize when investor psychology has turned negative and recognize some very healthy gains OR
- Continue to own shares and reap the ultimate of financial rewards when suspected "irrational" exuberance proves to be "rational" after all.
We've seen many examples in history of number 1 - great story stocks that never lived up to expectations. I illustrated a couple of examples in my December 17, 2007 blog entry. Smart investors capitalized and made huge sums of money on the way up...others fell victim to the hype and got burned as the story turned out to be a fantasy.
Tuesday night at 10:00 PM could mark Sirtris Pharmacueticals move into America's conscience and into Wall Street's spotlight as Barbara Walters highlights the amazing body of work at Sirtris Pharmacueticals on a special program called Live to 150...Can You Do It?. Its likely to be very compelling television and those who have been following the area of sirtuins KNOW that the actual evidence is equally compelling.
IMHO, the main hurdle to irrational exuberance in any stock at this time may be overall market pessimism. However, if there is a story that can swim up tide, IMO, we may be looking at it right here and right now.
Do your own due diligence (and remember to visit resveratrol sponsors on this page).
Friday, March 28, 2008
Multiple Potentials of the Sirtuin Platform
- Optic Neuritis in a Preclinical Model of Multiple Sclerosis
- Cancer
- Type 2 Diabetes
- Alzheimer's Disease
- Huntington Disease
- Stess reistance in plants
The potential of this sirtuin platform to create a very valuable company is promising as there are multiple roads to success. Most importantly, the process of activating a natural defense process within the body seems to make the likelihood of safety high. While it is still early, so far no side serious effects have been reported in any clinical data.
Its still a long road to commercial success. However, increased valuation is usually reflected in the stock price of of a biotechnology company well in advance of the crowning event of a drug achieving FDA approval. More importantly, from an shareholder's perspective, irrational exuberance can take hold quickly once a certain level of confidence is achieved in a company's prospects. Add in some excitement in the press and some Wall Street analysts that pound the table and you've got yourself a story stock
Do your own due dilligence.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Biotech CEO Joins Sirtris Board
Stephen Hoffman, Ph.D., M.D., Chairman (and former CEO) of Allos Therapeutics, Inc., Richard Pops, Chairman (and former CEO) of Alkermes, Inc. Incyte Corporation is a drug discovery and development company, which focuses on developing proprietary small molecule drugs to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), diabetes, oncology, and inflammation diseases. Incyte has a market capitalization of $863 million and a enterprise value close to $1 Billion.
It is interesting to observe the stream of executives from competitors and potential partners populating the Sirtris board. The industry contacts available to this board are certainly widespread. It wouldn't be a surprise if a joint venture with a major player happens sooner than the timeframe that Sirtris management has been guiding to. The recently approved patent approval granted to the company on resveratrol like NCE compounds, certainly puts Sirtris in a stronger negotiating position for a deal to happen.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Sirtris Issued Important Patent on SIRT1 Activators
If the Sirtuin platform proves to be as promising for drug development in diseases of the aging as early indications seem to indicate, this patent could be remembered as the inflection pointed that started it all for Sirtris. The obvious upside of the patent is that big pharma is much more likely to partner with Sirtris than to pursue sirtuin research on its own and risk patent infringement issues.
For those interesting in learning more about sirtuins and their promise, read through the earlier blogs on this post.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Sirtris Expands Revenue Potential into Agriculture
Without knowing the specific details of the agreement it is difficult to assess the revenue potential of this agreement. However, the agriculture industry is a huge global business and any technology that can economically and safely improve yields should prove to be lucrative.
