A sharp rise from $16 to $21 in late November was followed by a sharper decline to $14.50 in the next few days. It is easy to see that the sharp rise was related to the following press release that illustrated the huge potential in SIRT's game plan: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071128/20071128005806.html?.v=1 .
However, the subsequent decline is more puzzling. One theory on the sharp decline would be insider selling. Since it has now been longer than 6 months since SIRT's IPO, the underwriter's lock-up for insider selling has now expired. However, no insider sells of either officers or venture capital firms that provided the seed money have shown up in SEC filings. At this time I can only conclude that the sharp selloff is a result of speculative short term trading activity that we see all the time in today's markets.
I've listened to many presentations by firm management. The often giddy excitement shown by management in interviews, conference calls and investor presentations seems to be genuine although even they cannot know for sure if their efforts will eventually lead to blockbuster drugs. However, investing is never a sure thing and you must always do your own risk/reward analysis. I firmly believe that SIRT is a stock with tremendous upside, a potential ten bagger within a few years. However, one must put up with and accept stomach turning volatility.
The time to buy a story stock like SIRT, IMHO, is when the story hasn't changed yet the stock price has taken a hit. I believe NOW is that time, with SIRT trading under $15 and over 30% off its recent highs. Results of the firm's Phase 1B study on Type2 diabetes are due out within the next month and should provide a legitimate new catalyst to move SIRT to a new trading range.
Do your own DD.
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