SIRT High Price Poll Closed - 2008 Thoughts

The results of the poll conducted on this blog regarding expectations for the 2008 high stock price of SIRT are now final. No consensus was formed. If you ignore the $10 choice, which is already incorrect, the other choices: $20 -> 23%, $30-> 29% & $40 or above-> 27% or above were pretty much the same.

One year is an eternity in stock market time and the ultimate correct prognostication will be determined by three main factors:

1) Progress in clinical trials and any other related news (i.e., big pharma deals).
2) Level of insider selling.
3) General market conditions.

Sirtuin Investor has a personal 2008 price target of $33 per share with the caveat that insider selling remains somewhat muted throughout the year. Now a little commentary. IMHO, at this early timeframe in SIRT's business business plan, employee and executive insiders have not yet earned the right to sell their shares, from a moral standpoint, despite limited legal restrictions from doing so under SEC regulations. Employee insiders will only legitimately earn the windfall that comes from sales of cheap SIRT stock when at least one of the following occurs:

1) 4 years have passed from the IPO date.
2) Average monthly volume exceeds 500,000 shares for a three month period.
3) The company is on a clear path to profitability.

My logic for these parameters is as follows:

1)4 years have passed from the IPO date.
Once 4 years have passed from the IPO date, the investing public will likely have all
the data it needs to make an informed decision on whether SIRT will ultimately achieve its goals. By this time, any hype created by SIRT management will either have been validated or disproved and a true legimate measurement SIRT's efforts will be reflected in its stock price. In other words, the playing field will have been reasonably leveled between insiders and outside shareholders with regard to where this company is ultimately headed as substansive results of clinical trials will be available.

2)Average monthly volume exceeds 500,000shs for a three month period.
This will be an indication that the company has generated sustainable widespread market interest and will allow insiders to sell without significantly effecting the stock price.

3)The company is on a clear path to profitability.
In the final analysis, this is the only true measurement of management and
employee effectiveness. Until SIRT reaches this, albeit subjective, moment in its history, employee insiders will not have legitimately earned the proceeds of windfall personal stock sales to the public, IMHO.

If 2007 is any indication, 2008 will be a volatile year. As always, do your own due dilligence.
Comments are welcome!